Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g., Trajectory Optimization (TO) in uncertain environments. However, existing methods predominantly employ a sequential scheme, where decisions rely unidirectionally on the prediction regions, and consequently the information from decision-making fails to be fed back to instruct CP. In this paper, we propose a novel Feedback-Based CP (Fb-CP) framework for shrinking-horizon TO with a joint risk constraint over the entire mission time. Specifically, a CP-based posterior risk calculation method is developed by fully leveraging the realized trajectories to adjust the posterior allowable risk, which is then allocated to future times to update prediction regions. In this way, the information in the realized trajectories is continuously fed back to the CP, enabling attractive feedback-based adjustments of the prediction regions and a provable online improvement in trajectory performance. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that such adjustments consistently maintain the coverage guarantees of the prediction regions, thereby ensuring provable safety. Additionally, we develop a decision-focused iterative risk allocation algorithm with theoretical convergence analysis for allocating the posterior allowable risk which closely aligns with Fb-CP. Furthermore, we extend the proposed method to handle distribution shift. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are demonstrated through benchmark experiments.

Recent work analyzing in-context learning (ICL) has identified a broad set of strategies that describe model behavior in different experimental conditions. We aim to unify these findings by asking why a model learns these disparate strategies in the first place. Specifically, we start with the observation that when trained to learn a mixture of tasks, as is popular in the literature, the strategies learned by a model for performing ICL can be captured by a family of Bayesian predictors: a memorizing predictor, which assumes a discrete prior on the set of seen tasks, and a generalizing predictor, where the prior matches the underlying task distribution. Adopting the normative lens of rational analysis, where a learner's behavior is explained as an optimal adaptation to data given computational constraints, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian framework that almost perfectly predicts Transformer nexttoken predictions throughout training--without assuming access to its weights. Under this framework, pretraining is viewed as a process of updating the posterior probability of different strategies, and inference-time behavior as a posteriorweighted average over these strategies' predictions. Our framework draws on common assumptions about neural network learning dynamics, which make explicit a tradeoff between loss and complexity among candidate strategies: beyond how well it explains the data, a model's preference towards implementing a strategy is dictated by its complexity. This helps explain well-known ICL phenomena, while offering novel predictions: e.g., we show a superlinear trend in the timescale for transitioning from generalization to memorization as task diversity increases. Overall, our work advances an explanatory and predictive account of ICL grounded in tradeoffs between strategy loss and complexity.

Robust 6d object pose estimation by learning rgb-d features.

Detection of occult hemorrhage (i.e., internal bleeding) in patients in intensive care units (ICUs) can pose significant challenges for critical care workers. Because blood loss may not always be clinically apparent, clinicians rely on monitoring vital signs for specific trends indicative of a hemorrhage event. The inherent difficulties of diagnosing such an event can lead to late intervention by clinicians which has catastrophic consequences. Therefore, a methodology for early detection of hemorrhage has wide utility. We develop a Bayesian regime switching model (RSM) that analyzes trends in patients' vitals and labs to provide a probabilistic assessment of the underlying physiological state that a patient is in at any given time. This article is motivated by a comprehensive dataset we curated from Mayo Clinic of 33,924 real ICU patient encounters. Longitudinal response measurements are modeled as a vector autoregressive process conditional on all latent states up to the current time point, and the latent states follow a Markov process. We present a novel Bayesian sampling routine to learn the posterior probability distribution of the latent physiological states, as well as develop an approach to account for pre-ICU-admission physiological changes. A simulation and real case study illustrate the effectiveness of our approach.

In this paper, we consider online F-measure optimization (OFO). Unlike traditional performance metrics (e.g., classification error rate), F-measure is non-decomposable over training examples and is a non-convex function of model parameters, making it much more difficult to be optimized in an online fashion. Most existing results of OFO usually suffer from high memory/computational costs and/or lack statistical consistency guarantee for optimizing F-measure at the population level. To advance OFO, we propose an efficient online algorithm based on simultaneously learning a posterior probability of class and learning an optimal threshold by minimizing a stochastic strongly convex function with unknown strong convexity parameter. A key component of the proposed method is a novel stochastic algorithm with low memory and computational costs, which can enjoy a convergence rate of $\widetilde O(1/\sqrt{n})$ for learning the optimal threshold under a mild condition on the convergence of the posterior probability, where $n$ is the number of processed examples. It is provably faster than its predecessor based on a heuristic for updating the threshold. The experiments verify the efficiency of the proposed algorithm in comparison with state-of-the-art OFO algorithms.

In the method section of our paper, we describe the general encoding-decoding paradigm. We provide a brief overview of our data preprocessing pipeline, which involves the following steps. We employ the method of Boussard et al. (2021) to estimate the location of Decentralized registration (Windolf et al., 2022) is applied to track and correct Figure 6: Motion drift in "good" and "bad" sorting recordings. "bad" sorting example, which is still affected by drift even after registration. To decode binary behaviors, such as the mouse's left or right choices, we utilize In this section, we provide visualizations to gain insights into the effectiveness of our proposed decoder.